The cost-effectiveness of Antiretroviral Treatment in Khayelitsha, South Africa – a primary data analysis

BACKGROUND: Given the size of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and other developing countries, scaling up antiretroviral treatment (ART) represents one of the key public health challenges of the next decade. Appropriate priority setting and budgeting can be assisted by economic data on the costs and cost-effectiveness of ART. The objectives of this research were therefore to estimate HIV healthcare utilisation, the unit costs of HIV services and the cost per life year (LY) and quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained of HIV treatment interventions from a provider's perspective. METHODS: Data on service utilisation, outcomes and costs were collected in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Utilisation of a full range of HIV healthcare services was estimated from 1,729 patients in the Khayelitsha cohort (1,146 No-ART patient-years, 2,229 ART patient-years) using a before and after study design. Full economic costs of HIV-related services were calculated and were complemented by appropriate secondary data. ART effects (deaths, therapy discontinuation and switching to second-line) were from the same 1,729 patients followed for a maximum of 4 years on ART. No-ART outcomes were estimated from a local natural history cohort. Health-related quality of life was assessed on a sub-sample of 95 patients. Markov modelling was used to calculate lifetime costs, LYs and QALYs and uncertainty was assessed through probabilistic sensitivity analysis on all utilisation and outcome variables. An alternative scenario was constructed to enhance generalizability. RESULTS: Discounted lifetime costs for No-ART and ART were US$2,743 and US$9,435 over 2 and 8 QALYs respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio through the use of ART versus No-ART was US$1,102 (95$984 (95% CI 913-1,078) per life year gained. In an alternative scenario where adjustments were made across cost, outcome and utilisation parameters, costs and outcomes were lower, but the ICER was similar. CONCLUSION: Decisions to scale-up ART across sub-Saharan Africa have been made in the absence of incremental lifetime cost and cost-effectiveness data which seriously limits attempts to secure funds at the global level for HIV treatment or to set priorities at the country level. This article presents baseline cost-effectiveness data from one of the longest running public healthcare antiretroviral treatment programmes in Africa that could assist in enhancing efficient resource allocation and equitable access to HIV treatment

The Effect of Complete Integration of HIV and TB Services on Time to Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy: A Before-After Study.

Studies have shown that early ART initiation in TB/HIV co-infected patients lowers mortality. One way to implement earlier ART commencement could be through integration of TB and HIV services, a more efficient model of care than separate, vertical programs. We present a model of full TB/HIV integration and estimate its effect on time to initiation of ART

Nevirapine-Associated Early Hepatotoxicity: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Associated Mortality in a Primary Care ART Programme in South Africa

BACKGROUND: The majority of antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa are scaling up antiretroviral treatment using a fixed dose first-line antiretroviral regimen containing stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine. One of the primary concerns with the use of this regimen is nevirapine-associated hepatotoxicity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Study participants were 1809 HIV-infected, antiretroviral naïve adults initiating nevirapine-based antiretroviral therapy between November 2002 and December 2006. The primary outcome was early hepatotoxicity. Secondary outcomes were associations with hepatotoxicity and mortality at six months. The cumulative proportion of early hepatotoxicity ranged from 1.0-2.0% giving an incidence-rate at 102 days of 3.6-7.6 per 100 person-years. Median time to hepatotoxicity was 32 (IQR 28-58) days. At 12 weeks, only 8% of patients had alanine aminotransferase monitoring at all the time-points recommended by national guidelines. No association was found between age, gender, baseline CD4 count, concurrent tuberculosis infection, prior participation in a prevention of mother-to-child-transmission program, or baseline weight and early hepatotoxicity. There was no association between early hepatotoxicity and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative proportion of early hepatotoxicity in nevirapine based antiretroviral therapy was low in this resource-constrained setting. Hepatotoxicity was not associated with mortality. Frequent routine monitoring of alanine aminotransferase proved difficult to implement in this public sector primary care programme. Focused monitoring in the first month may be a more cost-effective and pragmatic option in settings with limited resources. Correlation with clinical signs and symptoms may allow future alanine aminotransferase testing to be dictated by clinical criteria

AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma is linked to advanced disease and high mortality in a primary care HIV programme in South Africa

BACKGROUND: AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma is an important, life-threatening opportunistic infection among people living with HIV/AIDS in resource-limited settings. In western countries, the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and new chemotherapeutic agents has resulted in decreased incidence and improved prognosis of AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma. In African cohorts, however, mortality remains high. In this study, we describe disease characteristics and risk factors for mortality in a public sector HIV programme in South Africa. METHODS: We analysed data from an observational cohort study of HIV-infected adults with AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma, enrolled between May 2001 and January 2007 in three primary care clinics. Paper records from primary care and tertiary hospital oncology clinics were reviewed to determine the site of Kaposi's sarcoma lesions, immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome stage, and treatment. Baseline characteristics, cART use and survival outcomes were extracted from an electronic database maintained for routine monitoring and evaluation. Cox regression was used to model associations with mortality. RESULTS: Of 6292 patients, 215 (3.4%) had AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma. Lesions were most commonly oral (65%) and on the lower extremities (56%). One quarter of patients did not receive cART. The mortality and lost-to-follow-up rates were, respectively, 25 (95% CI 19-32) and eight (95% CI 5-13) per 100 person years for patients who received cART, and 70 (95% CI 42-117) and 119 (80-176) per 100 person years for patients who did not receive cART. Advanced T stage (adjusted HR, AHR = 5.3, p < 0.001), advanced S stage (AHR = 5.1, p = 0.008), and absence of chemotherapy (AHR = 2.4, p = 0.012) were associated with mortality.Patients with AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma presented with advanced disease and high rates of mortality and loss to follow up. Risk factors for mortality included advanced Kaposi's sarcoma disease and lack of chemotherapy use. Contributing factors to the high mortality for patients with AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma likely included late diagnosis of HIV disease, late accessibility to cART, and sub-optimal treatment of advanced Kaposi's sarcoma. CONCLUSIONS: These findings confirm the importance of early access to both cART and chemotherapy for patients with AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma. Early diagnosis and improved treatment protocols in resource-poor settings are essential

Assessing rates and contextual predictors of 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals following HIV testing in Durban, South Africa

Abstract Background Little is known about contextual factors that predict long-term mortality following HIV testing in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of contextual factors on 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals in Durban, South Africa. Methods We used data from the Sizanani trial (NCT01188941) in which adults (≥18y) were enrolled prior to HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites. We ascertained vital status via the South African National Population Register. We used random survival forests to identify the most influential predictors of time to death and incorporated these into a Cox model that included age, gender, HIV status, CD4 count, healthcare usage, health facility type, mental health, and self-identified barriers to care (i.e., service delivery, financial, logistical, structural and perceived health). Results Among 4816 participants, 39% were HIV-infected. Median age was 31y and 49% were female. 380 of 2508 with survival information (15%) died during median follow-up of 5.8y. For both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected participants, each additional barrier domain increased the HR of dying by 11% (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05–1.18). Every 10-point increase in mental health score decreased the HR by 7% (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.97). The hazard ratio (HR) for death of HIV-infected versus HIV-uninfected varied by age: HR of 6.59 (95% CI: 4.79–9.06) at age 20 dropping to a HR of 1.13 (95% CI: 0.86–1.48) at age 60. Conclusions Independent of serostatus, more self-identified barrier domains and poorer mental health increased mortality risk. Additionally, the impact of HIV on mortality was most pronounced in younger persons. These factors may be used to identify high-risk individuals requiring intensive follow up, regardless of serostatus. Trial registration Clinical Trials.gov Identifier NCT01188941. Registered 26 August 2010

Elevation and cholera: an epidemiological spatial analysis of the cholera epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2008-2009

BACKGROUND: In highly populated African urban areas where access to clean water is a challenge, water source contamination is one of the most cited risk factors in a cholera epidemic. During the rainy season, where there is either no sewage disposal or working sewer system, runoff of rains follows the slopes and gets into the lower parts of towns where shallow wells could easily become contaminated by excretes. In cholera endemic areas, spatial information about topographical elevation could help to guide preventive interventions. This study aims to analyze the association between topographic elevation and the distribution of cholera cases in Harare during the cholera epidemic in 2008 and 2009. METHODS: We developed an ecological study using secondary data. First, we described attack rates by suburb and then calculated rate ratios using whole Harare as reference. We illustrated the average elevation and cholera cases by suburbs using geographical information. Finally, we estimated a generalized linear mixed model (under the assumption of a Poisson distribution) with an Empirical Bayesian approach to model the relation between the risk of cholera and the elevation in meters in Harare. We used a random intercept to allow for spatial correlation of neighboring suburbs. RESULTS: This study identifies a spatial pattern of the distribution of cholera cases in the Harare epidemic, characterized by a lower cholera risk in the highest elevation suburbs of Harare. The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each 100 meters of increase in the topographical elevation, the cholera risk was 30% lower with a rate ratio of 0.70 (95% confidence interval=0.66-0.76). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the risk reduction with an overall estimate of the rate ratio between 20% and 40%. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of considering topographical elevation as a geographical and environmental risk factor in order to plan cholera preventive activities linked with water and sanitation in endemic areas. Furthermore, elevation information, among other risk factors, could help to spatially orientate cholera control interventions during an epidemic

Effectiveness of Patient Adherence Groups as a Model of Care for Stable Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract: Background: Innovative models of care are required to cope with the ever-increasing number of patients on antiretroviral therapy in the most affected countries. This study, in Khayelitsha, South Africa, evaluates the effectiveness of a group-based model of care run predominantly by non-clinical staff in retaining patients in care and maintaining adherence. Methods and Findings: Participation in ‘‘adherence clubs’’ was offered to adults who had been on ART for at least 18 months, had a current CD4 count .200 cells/ml and were virologically suppressed. Embedded in an ongoing cohort study, we compared loss to care and virologic rebound in patients receiving the intervention with patients attending routine nurse-led care from November 2007 to February 2011. We used inverse probability weighting to estimate the intention-totreat effect of adherence club participation, adjusted for measured baseline and time-varying confounders. The principal outcome was the combination of death or loss to follow-up. The secondary outcome was virologic rebound in patients who were virologically suppressed at study entry. Of 2829 patients on ART for .18 months with a CD4 count above 200 cells/ml, 502 accepted club participation. At the end of the study, 97% of club patients remained in care compared with 85% of other patients. In adjusted analyses club participation reduced loss-to-care by 57% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.43, 95% CI = 0.21–0.91) and virologic rebound in patients who were initially suppressed by 67% (HR 0.33, 95% CI = 0.16–0.67). Discussion: Patient adherence groups were found to be an effective model for improving retention and documented virologic suppression for stable patients in long term ART care. Out-of-clinic group-based models facilitated by non-clinical staff are a promising approach to assist in the long-term management of people on ART in high burden low or middleincome settings

Correcting for Mortality Among Patients Lost to Follow Up on Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa: A Cohort Analysis

Loss to follow-up (LTF) challenges the reporting of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes, since it encompasses patients alive but lost to programme and deaths misclassified as LTF. We describe LTF before and after correction for mortality in a primary care ART programme with linkages to the national vital registration system

Early mortality in tuberculosis patients initially lost to follow up following diagnosis in provincial hospitals and primary health care facilities in Western Cape, South Africa

In South Africa, low tuberculosis (TB) treatment coverage and high TB case fatality remain important challenges. Following TB diagnosis, patients must link with a primary health care (PHC) facility for initiation or continuation of antituberculosis treatment and TB registration. We aimed to evaluate mortality among TB patients who did not link to a TB treatment facility for TB treatment within 30 days of their TB diagnosis, i.e. who were “initial loss to follow-up (ILTFU)” in Cape Town, South Africa. We prospectively included all patients with a routine laboratory or clinical diagnosis of TB made at PHC or hospital level in Khayelitsha and Tygerberg sub-districts in Cape Town, using routine TB data from an integrated provincial health data centre between October 2018 and March 2020. Overall, 74% (10,208/13,736) of TB patients were diagnosed at PHC facilities and ILTFU was 20.0% (2,742/13,736). Of ILTFU patients, 17.1% (468/2,742) died, with 69.7% (326/468) of deaths occurring within 30 days of diagnosis. Most ILTFU deaths (85.5%; 400/468) occurred in patients diagnosed in hospital. Multivariable logistic regression identified increasing age, HIV positive status, and hospital-based TB diagnosis (higher in the absence of TB treatment initiation and being ILTFU) as predictors of mortality. Although hospitals account for a modest proportion of diagnosed TB patients they have high TB-associated mortality. A hospital-based TB diagnosis is a critical opportunity to identify those at high risk of early and overall mortality. Interventions to diagnose TB before hospital admission, improve linkage to TB treatment following diagnosis, and reduce mortality in hospital-diagnosed TB patients should be prioritised